Archive for the ‘Reds’ Category

Defense – Baseball’s Wallflower.

Monday, July 24th, 2006

Sitting the corner at the big dance is a beautiful girl, hidden behind her glasses and underwhelming clothes is a prize. Alas there she sits in the shadows, underappreciated and unloved by most, her name?

Defense.

The Reds have been swinging around the dance floor for the past 5 years, switching partners, losing dates, always being a wallflower towards the end of the night, tired and alone again. But in the shadows there is a partner that is not as sexy as the others, not as outrageous, noticeable or flashy… but steady and committed to success, and that my friends is defense.

Like dance defense is a rhythm, it’s an all-connecting presence of none intrusive success. Good defense usually will begat more quality defense and in its fabric we find the ying of defense matching up well with the yang of pitching. In the world of baseball a pitcher unimpressed and afraid of the defense behind him is a waste, he’ll nibble to avoid hard hit balls towards the men he questions, he’ll pick his way through a lineup, afraid of what will happen with each pitch and even more afraid when the weight of the game falls on the execution of these questionable characters who back him up on the field of play. This is where the Reds have been the last few years, wallowing in the filth of horrible pitching the Reds had fallen on the mound and in the field and hidden beneath the horrible pitching was the fact that the Reds defense was somewhat putrid, somewhat not right, and defiantly not the defense that Reds fans had become accustomed to in the past 55 years.

Around 15% of the outs made in the field are made at shortstop, 13% by second baseman and 18% by the centerfielder in 2005 the Reds pitching accounted for 22% of the outs made. This year it’s 23.75%. Either way you look at it the Reds defense like most teams is asked to a lot of the work in reducing base runners, a good defense can help the pitcher by reducing errors, hits and increasing double plays. When the defense does this it helps prevent runs and enhances the chance of winning, for as we all know the only thing that matters in the stat world is runs and everything else is subordinate to that reality.

In the past 4 months the Reds have addressed the two up the middle positions with an approach that is purely going to look at athleticism and fielding ability first, in the future I expect the centerfield position to be addressed, but currently the 500 lb gorilla out there makes that a secondary task. Brandon Phillips might be the shortstop of the future, or someone else could be the next link in the chain known as the “Power of Tradition.”

Traditionally good defense is a tool to help your team over the at least one half of the hump, the Reds as a team haven’t had less then 100-team errors since 1997 and they haven’t led the National League in the least amount errors since they last won a title of any sort in 1995. Of course with the bulk of the defense responsibility hinging on middle defense the Power of Tradition points right at the shortstop position in Cincinnati.

A position that has be discussed here before and will probably be discussed again and again over the next few years as well.

Alongside with low errors usually comes a diminished ERA, along with a diminished ERA comes less runs allowed and with that usually comes wins. But where is the line drawn? Where does the team start paying for defense, especially in a world of that can’t quantify it?

Is the game looked at in the way our fantasy baseball absorbed fan base wants it? Or is it the way that Earl Weaver described it?

“The only thing that matters is what happens on that little lump out in the middle of the field?”

Since the Reds last could boast of a season ending winning record they have they have proven that whatever has happened out there on that lump hasn’t exactly been good, and a good part of that can probably be attributed to the defense.

ERA vs. the league average

RUNS                             R       ERA      PCT
1    Rockies                    3575    -1.04     .435
2    Reds                       3456     -.70     .457
3    Brewers                    3148     -.27     .420
4    Diamondbacks               3114     -.17     .478
5    Padres                     3077     -.18     .461
6    Pirates                    3044     -.17     .443
7    Phillies                   2928     0.01     .526
8    Marlins                    2887     0.06     .519
9    Nationals                  2876     0.19     .485
10   Mets                       2836     0.17     .457
11   Cubs                       2821     0.20     .498
12   Giants                     2769     0.24     .559
13   Cardinals                  2737     0.35     .597
14   Astros                     2679     0.38     .543
15   Braves                     2647     0.50     .601
16   Dodgers                    2638     0.43     .526

Inside of this below average ERA are many factors, one of them has been targeted by the recent regime (Krivsky) and it is the shortstop position, the recent trade that shocked the Reds fan base and has further manifested this concern.

Have the Reds shot their foot off?

Or were they aware of Felipe Lopez’s limitations at short and his impending payday?

It was almost obvious that Felipe never was the chosen one to take the baton from Larkin, it was the utter failure of Dave Miley and Rich Aurilia combo that finally got him to the position, but 14 months later he leaves the team with 326 games played at short, slotting him at number 17 in games played on the Reds all-time shortstop list, right a head of Darrel Chaney and right behind Buck Herzog.

But why was he sent off, why did the Reds trade a shortstop who could hit for power, take a walk and steal a bag.

Defense is the only plausible answer, well and that and that money thing, but the combination of the two likely propelled Wayne Krivsky to move Felipe Lopez in the midst of the season and in my opinion it’s the defense that scared the Reds the most.

In the Fielding Bible by John Dewan, Lopez was ranked in the bottom five of shortstops in the National League last year. This season the Reds are currently 12th in team defense efficiency in the NL.

Since Roy McMillan first pulled on his Reds jersey Cincinnatians have had the pleasure to watch nothing but slick leather from their shortstops, however when Larkin retired this changed.

By mid season this year it was getting clearer that Lopez was having a tough year at SS, whispers of a position flop with Brandon Phillips were thrown about in the press and in cyberspace, some might say that it was too soon to worry, while others said that it was the real Lopez this year and that the last year was highlighted by the waning of Aurilia, whose shortstop play was horrendous in its limited appearance. However this years insertion of Phillips at 2nd and Encarnacion at 3rd has provide the Reds with a look at rangy young players whose play often highlighted their skill set and besides them Felipe Lopez the fielder often looked second rate.

Felipe has a .954 fielding percentage this year (.970 last year), if you were to look at the 100 worst SS seasons by NL teams since Roy McMillan became a Red you will find 3 Reds seasons in that list.

1968 #96
1987 #31
2003 #20

If you go and look at the next 100 shortstop seasons you’ll find only 3 more.

1970 #132
1986 #167
1964 #173

That’s an impressive 3% of the worst seasons put in by a shortstop since 1951, the best rate for any NL team, out of a total of 644 seasons.

What can we find in those poor seasons?, well each season aside from 1964 was a combination of rookies, or outgoing vets and journeymen filling in, and only 1970 could boast of being a successful season. The majority of those seasons were transition seasons and with transition often comes erratic performance.

1964
FIELDING PERCENTAGE         PCT       G
Leo Cardenas               .960      163

1968
FIELDING PERCENTAGE         PCT       G
Leo Cardenas               .955      136
Woody Woodward             .968       41

1970
FIELDING PERCENTAGE         PCT       G
Darrel Chaney              .941       30
Dave Concepcion            .945       93
Woody Woodward             .973       77
Tommy Helms               1.000       12

1986
FIELDING PERCENTAGE         PCT       G
Wade Rowdon                .893        6
Kurt Stillwell             .951       80
Dave Concepcion            .965       60
Barry Larkin               .976       36

1987
FIELDING PERCENTAGE         PCT       G
Kurt Stillwell             .914       51
Barry Larkin               .965      119

2003
FIELDING PERCENTAGE         PCT       G
Felipe Lopez               .928       50
Rainer Olmedo              .928       51
Barry Larkin               .962       60
Juan Castro               1.000       24

With his current fielding percentage of .954 Lopez was on his way to establishing the 3rd worst fielding performance by a Reds shortstop since Harry Truman was in office. And despite his speed, despite his power and despite his on-base skills this aspect of his game was the final measuring stick that the Reds used to measure Felipe Lopez’s game and it was the main reason that they decided that he wasn’t out the Reds shortstop to continue the Power of Tradition.

The Reds have experienced the worst team ERA since the 1890’s in each of the last 3 seasons and the team pitching and fielding have provided the Reds with nothing to cheer about, all while the hitting has eclipsed records established 50 years prior. This has its merits, but lends itself to a feeling of helplessness as the offense can’t seem to have a night off for fear that the pitching and defense can’t keep it close enough that a run or two on the offensive side will just be enough.

A pitchers ERA can be affected by four factors, the league that the player plays in, the ballpark in which the pitcher pitches ½ his games in, the bullpen that cleans up the pitchers mess and the defense that backs him up on every pitch.

The Reds recent trade, despite its warts is an attempt to fix the last two of the foursome listed above and that’s not a bad thing in the wake of five losing seasons in a row and eight of the last ten. The problem is this years shortstop log will likely end up looking like the poor years listed above, marked with spotty play from crafty veterans and uninspired play by men who probably won’t be at shortstop in two years.

Transition is a pain, and you know what they say… “No Pain, No Gain.”

Posted in Reds | 1 Comment »

Reds History – How’s Wayne Measuring Up?

Thursday, June 29th, 2006


R-E-S-P-E-C-T
Find out what it means to me

Reds’ brass praised.

The Reds got some high praise in the Sports Illustrated midseason report.

The club’s front office was named the best in baseball for the first half of the season.

The report, due on newsstands today, says: “New general manager Wayne Krivsky quickly made his mark with two moves that have been central to his club’s strong start: He traded outfielder Wily Mo Peña to Boston for right-hander Bronson Arroyo (9 -4, 2.58) in March, then dealt a lightly regarded prospect to Cleveland for second baseman Brandon Phillips (.314, seven homers, 43 RBI) in April. Both players should be in Pittsburgh for the All-Star Game on July 11.

Knock me down with a feather, if you ever pondered how quick a turnaround could be don’t waste your time, just look toward Cincinnati and check out the Reds.

Hired less then six months ago as the new General Manager Wayne Krivsky has made great headway in turning the Reds ship around. To many the proof will be in the winning record, from my vantage point that is a fringe benefit, and after 5 years of miserable, self induced mediocrity the Reds franchise is creeping out of the hole known as shame and standing tall in the world of baseball, and evidently they are getting noticed for something other than the stink that came from the front office and the historically bad pitching.

It’s about time.

Where does this current GM stand when measured against his predecessors in the GM office in Cincinnati?

Since the state of the game off the field has changed so much in the last 30 years it wouldn’t be fair to measure Krivsky against all the GM’s in Reds history, so well just slide back 22 years and start our study with the man who replaced Bob Howsam (when he left for the second time) Bill Bergesch and we’ll run it right up to the recently lauded Krivsky and his incomplete run at restoring confidence in a team that has lost more than just games the past five years.

Bill Bergesch – Hired October 1984
Former Title – Director of Baseball Operations – New York Yankees.

First Move – Keefe Cato to San Diego for Darren Burroghs. Bergesch made only 2 trades in his first 8 months on the job.

Most Famous Player Traded First – Cesar Cedeno was traded to the Cardinals in August for Mark Jackson. Cesar was out of the game the next year but strung together 76 magical at bats for the NL pennant winners.

Most Famous Trade Pickup – Buddy Bell, 10 months in to the job Bergesch made his first significant trade and it was steal, trading Duane Walker and Jeff Russell in mid July of 1985.

Best Young Player Pickup – Slow on the draw was Bergesch’s main problem it took him 15 months to pick up a future impact Red, once again though it was steal, with the Reds relinquishing Wayne Krenchicki and ending up with Norm Charlton.

See Ya – Who’d he cut? – Every GM usually comes aboard with a plan and often that doesn’t include the former regimes players. So the axe often swings freely, in Bergesch’s tenure the axe took down longtime Reds Frank Pastore.

Biggest Mistake – Being slow with the trade trigger was Bill’s biggest headache and it would eventually cost him his job as he held on to both the Reds shortstop prospects and the quickly multiplying outfield prospects.

First Draft – Bergesch endeared himself to Reds fans forever by being the GM who chose Barry Larkin with the 4th pick in the 1985 draft.

Murray Cook – Hired October 1987
Former Title: Montreal GM and Yankee Employee.

First Move – – Unlike his predecessor Cook started off with a bang, trading Kurt Stillwell for left hander Danny Jackson, who would be a major player for the Reds for the next few years.

Most Famous Player Traded First – Targeting pitching was Cooks first order of business, so he moved Dave Parker for Jose Rijo and Tim Birtsas.

Most Famous Trade Pickup – Danny Jackson was an established starter who immediately strengthened the Reds weak staff.

Best Young Player Pickup – Jose Rijo would go on to be one of the best pitchers in team history.

See Ya – Who’d he cut? – Cook was the man who sent Tom Hume into the coaching profession in the autumn of 1987.

Biggest Mistake – Saddled without a first round choice in the 1988 draft Cook took Jeff Branson with the number one pick, in a draft that was largely disappointing from top to bottom for the Reds.

First Draft – See above.

Bob Quinn – Hired October 1989
Former Title: Yankee Employee

First Move – – It almost seems common with Reds general managers, the first deal is usually a deal for arms, and in Cook’s case it was no different, in December he sent John Franco to the Mets for Randy Meyers and Kip Gross.

Most Famous Player Traded First – John Franco was the Reds closer and a fan favorite, evidently he was easy to replace.

Most Famous Trade Pickup – Billy Hatcher/Bill Doran. Not looking for big name players Quinn’s biggest names acquired would both play roles in the 1990 teams run for the title, and neither would cost more then a middling prospect.

Best Young Player Pickup – Quinn’s 2nd trade was a steal for the Reds as Quinn picked the pocket of his former employers the Yankees and traded Tim Leary and Van Snider for Hal Morris.

See Ya – Who’d he cut? – Quinn was the man responsible finally getting Dave Collins of the field of play.

Biggest Mistake – The man drove the bus to the World Series in his first season, we’ll give this one a pass.

First Draft – In Quinn’s first draft he created what some consider a cardinal sin, he drafted a catcher with his first pick. Holy Steve Swisher, it didn’t fail… nor impress many either.

Jim Bowden – Hired October 1993
Former Title: Reds Front Office (Via Yankees and Pirates)

First Move – Jim Bowden tried to reverse the jinx of the first round catcher pick by jettisoning Dan Wilson to the Mariners for Eric Hanson and Bret Boone.

Most Famous Player Traded First – Bowden’s most famous player move was a telltale sign of an obsession that still follows him to this day, the swift centerfielder type is Jim Bowden’s dream player, the man obviously has a weakness for centerfielders and his career is littered with examples, it starts with his first trade as a Reds GM when he traded Roberto Kelly for Deion Sanders, thus beginning the long back and forth between Deion and the city.

Most Famous Trade Pickup – Deion Sanders was celebrity, and a so-so baseball player, he made a splash in Cincinnati time and time again, but no more then when he first showed up.

Best Young Player Pickup – Bret Boone anchored the Reds middle infield until 1998 and helped the Reds get Denny Neagle for the 1999 team.

See Ya – Who’d he cut? – Bowden didn’t see a future in Chris Sabo and at over 3 million bucks a year he was willing to let him walk.

Biggest Mistake – Beginning the infatuation dance with Deion Sanders, a man who would visit the Reds roster 3 separate times and only give back a .665 OPS in over 900 trips to the plate.

First Draft – Bowden’s first pick was C. J. Nitkowski, a player later traded for David Wells in the midst of the 1995 pennant race.

Dan O’Brien – Hired October 2003
Former Title: Assistant GM Texas Rangers

First Move – – In the first 3 months of O’Brien’s tenure he signed 21 free agents before he focused on the Reds current roster. His first trade was Chris Reitsma for Jung Bong and Bubba Nelson.

Most Famous Player Traded First – Possessing the same paralysis that Bergesch had O’Brien can only claim to have moved pitchers in his first year and they were Reitsma, Jones and Lidle. By Default Reitsma is the most famous.

Most Famous Trade Pickup – Since he was so fun in the trade market to find his most famous pickup you’d have to point to the free agent signing of Cory Lidle, a Christmas present most Reds fans would rather forget.

Best Young Player Pickup – From where we sit right now this could only be Elizardo Ramirez, who 11 starts into the 2006 season has 67 IP and a 3.61 ERA

See Ya – Who’d he cut? – O’Brien shed the team of two Bowden’s last busts, Russ Branyan and Ryan Dempster.

Biggest Mistake – Fear, inertia, not realizing that the hub of the wheel was the major league club, not the minor leagues.

First DraftHomer Bailey, RHP, Texas HS, Currently making his way up the ladder, cross your fingers.

Wayne Krivsky – Hired February 2006
Former Title: Assistant GM Minnesota Twins

First Move – – In his fifth week as GM, Krivsky pulled the trigger, taking care of the long suffering outfield log jam and getting the Reds an established starter when he got Arroyo and CASH for Wily Mo Pena

Most Famous Player Traded First – See Above

Most Famous Trade Pickup – Bronson Arroyo gave the Reds a steady starter to go with Aaron Harang and man who has experienced what it’s like to be on a winning team is always good the clubhouse.

Best Young Player Pickup – Brandon Phillips has solidified the middle infield defense and added athleticism and speed to a team that could use it.

See Ya – Who’d he cut? – Krivsky cut bait on numerous Reds, Hudson, Bong, Nelson and even a message cut with an overweight Hancock (Jury still out on that)

Biggest Mistake – Many would picking up Castro or Hatteberg, but until either burn down the clubhouse or worse I’ll pretend that Hatteberg is Casey Lite and that Castro is imparting some wisdom to the younger infielders on the Reds.

First Draft – Drew Stubbs, CF University of Texas, can field, and has pop and a ceiling.

So, there we have it. Measure it, ponder it, and remember it. In a year we’ll have a bigger picture of where the Reds are heading and how these moves affect them and the future of the team.

But right now the current path looks like it’s being trodden by someone who has a clue about what might be around the next bend.

All I can say is….thank you, it’s about time.

Posted in Reds, Reds History | 2 Comments »

Patterns – June 1st

Friday, June 2nd, 2006

My life is made of patterns
That can scarcely be controlled

I’m a pattern guy when it comes to baseball, I look at it in relation to the past, some fans dive head long into the season and they chomp up the foreground like Pac Man or something in The Langoliers. Full of hope, and dreams stirred by memories of the 1951 Giants or some other baseball fairy tale. Me I’m always struck with the sight of the Tigers getting old before my eyes as well as the Reds. Coupled with a decade of second place finishes and wait till next years.

Evidently we are dwelling in what we hope is the end of the next years, a bad 4 act play that has been sort of a Schott and Lindner induced purgatory of inertia and inept baseball. The state of the game in town is highlighted by the fact that the biggest baseball celebrity in the Tri State area these days is the announcer who never played the game.

Though the darkness surrounds us, the patterns emerging out of the darkness on June 1st should tell us a little more about the path this team is taking for at least the rest of this season.

Competing or not?

In it or not?

What do the past 16 years tells us?

(more…)

Posted in Reds, Reds History | 3 Comments »