Making a List
“Our pitching staff is a conspiracy of ifs.”
Branch Rickey
“Fastball, curveball, changeup. He’s 6-2, athletic with a live arm. He’s from the Dominican Republic and his idol is Pedro Martinez. He’s got charisma, animation. He’s got a fastball, 92-94, but can go get 97. He’s got a hard breaking ball that acts like a slurve at times. “
Wayne Krivsky on Edinson Volquez who they obtained for Josh Hamilton
“Nobody likes to hear it, because it’s dull, but the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same - pitching.”
Earl Weaver
It’s true we often hear the old saying above, or an amalgamation of it, and in turn it’s true that we often just shrug it off as being more or less full of air… especially in this day and age of pure offense.
Since the game was essentially created for the batter to hit the ball (the real battle was between the bare handed fielders and the batter) the game has always been centered around the batter and his attempt to successfully obtain a hit or get on base. The pitcher was the one who always had to change, first he had to throw it underhand and in the spot the batter called for, the rules makes shaped his box, increased the distance he had to throw, changed the height of the strike zone as well as the area in which the hurler had to throw from. In short the game has and always will be looking for a perfect balance, and in the eyes of the rules makers they tend to think that balance means weighted toward the offensive side of the ledger.
This balance is not in line, it’s askew the game is tilted to the offensive side, we know this… or do we?
Caution: I’m going to get unscientific here, not ridiculous, but not exactly Voros Mcrackin either.
An example of our current games skewed offensive numbers is found in the number of times a player has hit forty or more home runs in a season and its place in the history of the game.
This is the type of thing that affects what we see on the field and the relationship it has to our understanding of the games past.
I’m just going to kick around some lists and some of the thoughts that I get from them, not always earth shattering, or insightful, but it helps me understand (partially) the way some folks have looked at the game since it exploded into the national scene.
We’ll start with the 1876 season, the year of the Battle of Little Big Horn and the first year in the National League, from that date we’ll note that 44 years later on the eve of the 1920 season there were exactly 99 players in major league history who had at least 40 home runs in their CAREER. Only ten of them had at least 100 in their career.
If you sort the players by at bats number 99 just happened to be the biggest name on the list, his name?
Babe Ruth… who had 49 home runs and in only 1110 at bats.
Here’s the 100 HR Club
HOMERUNS HR AB 1 Roger Connor 138 7794 2 Sam Thompson 127 5984 3 Harry Stovey 122 6138 T4 Gavvy Cravath 118 3906 T4 Jimmy Ryan 118 8164 T6 Hugh Duffy 106 7042 T6 Mike Tiernan 106 5906 T6 Dan Brouthers 106 6711 T9 Honus Wagner 101 10430 T9 Ed Delahanty 101 7505
The next season that guy at #99 on that aforementioned 40 HR or better list jumped to #9, with 103 career home runs.
This was the first time anybody ever hit 30 Homes runs in a season as well as 40 and 50.
Now, if we are to look at the number of players who achieved 40 home runs in a season between 1921-1968 (Pre Division Era)we’ll see exactly 100 players.
This is their HR % that season they got 40 home runs.
HR% YEAR HR% HR 1 Babe Ruth 1927 11.11 60 2 Babe Ruth 1921 10.93 59 3 Mickey Mantle 1961 10.51 54 4 Hank Greenberg 1938 10.43 58 5 Roger Maris 1961 10.34 61 6 Babe Ruth 1928 10.07 54 7 Jimmie Foxx 1932 9.91 58 8 Ralph Kiner 1949 9.84 54 9 Mickey Mantle 1956 9.76 52 10 Hack Wilson 1930 9.57 56 11 Babe Ruth 1926 9.49 47 12 Jim Gentile 1961 9.47 46 13 Babe Ruth 1930 9.46 49 14 Willie Mays 1965 9.32 52 15 Babe Ruth 1929 9.22 46 16 Ralph Kiner 1947 9.03 51 17 Babe Ruth 1932 8.97 41 18 Jimmie Foxx 1938 8.85 50 19 Willie Mays 1955 8.79 51 20 Harmon Killebrew 1963 8.74 45 21 Johnny Mize 1947 8.70 51 T22 Babe Ruth 1924 8.70 46 T22 Harmon Killebrew 1962 8.70 48 24 Babe Ruth 1931 8.61 46 25 Ralph Kiner 1950 8.59 47 26 Ted Kluszewski 1954 8.55 49 27 Frank Robinson 1966 8.51 49 28 Harmon Killebrew 1961 8.50 46 29 Harmon Killebrew 1964 8.49 49 T30 Lou Gehrig 1936 8.46 49 T30 Lou Gehrig 1934 8.46 49 32 Hank Greenberg 1946 8.41 44 33 Eddie Mathews 1954 8.40 40 34 Rocky Colavito 1958 8.38 41 35 Jimmie Foxx 1933 8.38 48 36 Eddie Mathews 1955 8.22 41 37 Jimmie Foxx 1934 8.16 44 38 Willie Mays 1964 8.13 47 39 Eddie Mathews 1953 8.12 47 40 Mickey Mantle 1958 8.09 42 41 Lou Gehrig 1927 8.05 47 42 Harmon Killebrew 1967 8.04 44 43 Duke Snider 1956 7.93 43 44 Ralph Kiner 1951 7.91 42 45 Roy Campanella 1953 7.90 41 46 Willie Mays 1962 7.89 49 47 Hank Sauer 1954 7.88 41 48 Duke Snider 1957 7.87 40 49 Orlando Cepeda 1961 7.86 46 50 Babe Ruth 1923 7.85 41 51 Duke Snider 1955 7.81 42 52 Willie McCovey 1963 7.80 44 53 Eddie Mathews 1959 7.74 46 54 Rocky Colavito 1961 7.72 45 55 Mel Ott 1929 7.71 42 56 Harmon Killebrew 1959 7.69 42 57 Ted Kluszewski 1955 7.68 47 T58 Norm Cash 1961 7.66 41 T58 Cy Williams 1923 7.66 41 60 Ernie Banks 1959 7.64 45 61 Dick Allen 1966 7.63 40 62 Ernie Banks 1958 7.62 47 63 Hank Aaron 1962 7.60 45 64 Carl Yastrzemski 1967 7.60 44 65 Ted Williams 1949 7.60 43 66 Mickey Mantle 1960 7.59 40 67 Gus Zernial 1953 7.55 42 68 Lou Gehrig 1931 7.43 46 69 Johnny Mize 1940 7.43 43 70 Joe DiMaggio 1937 7.41 46 71 Ernie Banks 1955 7.38 44 72 Frank Howard 1968 7.36 44 73 Roy Sievers 1957 7.34 42 74 Hank Aaron 1966 7.30 44 75 Willie Mays 1954 7.26 41 76 Gil Hodges 1954 7.25 42 77 Ernie Banks 1957 7.24 43 78 Ralph Kiner 1948 7.21 40 79 Al Rosen 1953 7.18 43 80 Hank Greenberg 1940 7.16 41 81 Hank Aaron 1957 7.15 44 T82 Rocky Colavito 1959 7.14 42 T82 Johnny Mize 1948 7.14 40 84 Duke Snider 1953 7.12 42 85 Lou Gehrig 1930 7.06 41 86 Ted Kluszewski 1953 7.02 40 87 Jimmie Foxx 1936 7.01 41 88 Willie Mays 1961 6.99 40 89 Chuck Klein 1929 6.98 43 90 Hank Aaron 1963 6.97 44 91 Gil Hodges 1951 6.87 40 92 Ernie Banks 1960 6.87 41 93 Dick Stuart 1963 6.86 42 94 Duke Snider 1954 6.85 40 95 Hank Aaron 1960 6.78 40 96 Rogers Hornsby 1922 6.74 42 97 Hank Greenberg 1937 6.73 40 98 Hal Trosky 1936 6.68 42 99 Wally Post 1955 6.66 40 100 Chuck Klein 1930 6.17 40
This list is obviously affected by numerous variables, era, stadiums etc… those are valid points, those are also the talking points of the data, but I ‘m not going to digress….and in the end, prior to division era play there are 100 instances of 40 homes runs being hit in a season.
That’s 47 seasons, or an average of 2.12% instances of it a season.
Onward… to the next part of the ramble.
In 1970, I was just awakening to the ebb and flow of the season, I had discovered sports on the radio and especially baseball, this is also the second year of division play from 1969-1994 when baseball missed the world series and returned with another revamped divisional format there were 52 players to reach 40 home runs in a year.
HR% YEAR HR% HR 1 Matt Williams 1994 9.66 43 2 Hank Aaron 1971 9.49 47 3 Willie Stargell 1971 9.39 48 4 Ken Griffey Jr. 1994 9.24 40 5 Willie McCovey 1969 9.16 45 6 Dave Kingman 1979 9.02 48 7 Mark McGwire 1992 8.99 42 8 Cecil Fielder 1990 8.90 51 9 Harmon Killebrew 1969 8.83 49 10 Mark McGwire 1987 8.80 49 11 Mike Schmidt 1980 8.76 48 12 Kevin Mitchell 1989 8.66 47 13 Juan Gonzalez 1993 8.58 46 14 Reggie Jackson 1969 8.56 47 15 Barry Bonds 1993 8.53 46 16 George Foster 1977 8.46 52 17 Willie Stargell 1973 8.43 44 18 Mike Schmidt 1979 8.32 45 19 Frank Howard 1969 8.11 48 20 Gorman Thomas 1979 8.08 45 21 Hank Aaron 1969 8.04 44 22 Reggie Jackson 1980 7.98 41 23 Darrell Evans 1985 7.92 40 24 Andre Dawson 1987 7.89 49 25 Harmon Killebrew 1970 7.78 41 T26 Dale Murphy 1987 7.77 44 T26 Frank Howard 1970 7.77 44 28 Ken Griffey Jr. 1993 7.73 45 29 George Bell 1987 7.70 47 T30 Davey Johnson 1973 7.69 43 T30 Jose Canseco 1991 7.69 44 32 Mike Schmidt 1983 7.49 40 33 Rico Petrocelli 1969 7.48 40 34 Frank Thomas 1993 7.47 41 35 Johnny Bench 1970 7.44 45 36 Johnny Bench 1972 7.43 40 37 Juan Gonzalez 1992 7.36 43 38 Jeff Burroughs 1977 7.08 41 39 Carl Yastrzemski 1970 7.07 40 40 Cecil Fielder 1991 7.05 44 41 Ben Oglivie 1980 6.93 41 42 Darrell Evans 1973 6.89 41 43 Jose Canseco 1988 6.89 42 44 David Justice 1993 6.84 40 45 Tony Perez 1970 6.81 40 46 Jim Rice 1978 6.79 46 47 Jesse Barfield 1986 6.79 40 48 Tony Armas 1984 6.73 43 49 Carl Yastrzemski 1969 6.63 40 50 George Foster 1978 6.62 40 51 Billy Williams 1970 6.60 42 52 Ryne Sandberg 1990 6.50 40
Again the factors involving this somewhat tenuous benchmark are known, but we’ll continue, and this portion of the trip finds us in the division era, Astroturf, multi-use stadiums, etc… the rate for this quarter of a century is 2.08 instances a season, We’ll also note that no one reached a home run percentage of 10%.
In the prior list we see that it occurred 6 times.
Still the current range since Babe Ruth jumped from number 99 on the lifetime HR list to number 9 is in a comfortable 2.08 players a season range, not very gaudy, yet not too stingy.
Our next stop is the past 13 seasons of major league baseball, 13 years since the cancelled World Series and the new divisional set up, one with unbalanced schedules and many new cozy parks, also in the air is the issue of PED’s and what they can do, but that’s not where this leads, we’re just making lists.
So from 1995-2207 we have this many players who have hit 40 home runs in a season.
HR% YEAR HR% HR 1 Barry Bonds 2001 15.34 73 2 Mark McGwire 1998 13.75 70 3 Mark McGwire 1999 12.48 65 4 Mark McGwire 1996 12.29 52 5 Barry Bonds 2004 12.06 45 6 Barry Bonds 2003 11.54 45 7 Barry Bonds 2002 11.41 46 8 Sammy Sosa 2001 11.09 64 9 Jim Thome 2002 10.83 52 10 Mark McGwire 1997 10.74 58 11 Sammy Sosa 1998 10.26 66 12 Barry Bonds 2000 10.21 49 13 Sammy Sosa 1999 10.08 63 14 Ryan Howard 2006 9.98 58 15 David Ortiz 2006 9.68 54 16 Carlos Pena 2007 9.39 46 17 Luis Gonzalez 2001 9.36 57 18 Jim Thome 2001 9.32 49 19 Alex Rodriguez 2007 9.26 54 20 Travis Hafner 2006 9.25 42 21 Ken Griffey Jr. 1997 9.21 56 22 Albert Pujols 2006 9.16 49 23 Albert Belle 1995 9.16 50 24 Alex Rodriguez 2002 9.13 57 25 Ken Griffey Jr. 1996 8.99 49 26 Ryan Howard 2007 8.88 47 27 Ken Griffey Jr. 1998 8.85 56 28 Sammy Sosa 2002 8.81 49 T29 Prince Fielder 2007 8.73 50 T29 Greg Vaughn 1998 8.73 50 31 Andruw Jones 2005 8.70 51 32 Juan Gonzalez 1996 8.69 47 33 Brady Anderson 1996 8.64 50 34 Larry Walker 1997 8.63 49 35 Gary Sheffield 2000 8.58 43 36 Jim Thome 2006 8.57 42 37 Jay Buhner 1995 8.51 40 38 Jim Edmonds 2004 8.43 42 39 Jason Giambi 2000 8.43 43 40 Manny Ramirez 1999 8.43 44 41 Lance Berkman 2006 8.40 45 42 Alex Rodriguez 1999 8.37 42 43 Troy Glaus 2000 8.35 47 44 Todd Helton 2001 8.35 49 45 Rafael Palmeiro 1999 8.32 47 46 Sammy Sosa 2000 8.28 50 47 Jim Thome 2004 8.27 42 48 Alex Rodriguez 2001 8.23 52 49 Greg Vaughn 1999 8.18 45 50 Jermaine Dye 2006 8.16 44 51 Jim Thome 2003 8.13 47 52 Barry Bonds 1996 8.12 42 53 Manny Ramirez 2005 8.12 45 54 Frank Thomas 1995 8.11 40 55 Adam Dunn 2004 8.10 46 56 Gary Sheffield 1996 8.09 42 57 Jim Thome 1997 8.06 40 58 Albert Belle 1998 8.05 49 59 Carlos Beltran 2006 8.04 41 60 Sammy Sosa 1996 8.03 40 61 Adrian Beltre 2004 8.03 48 62 Jim Edmonds 2000 8.00 42 63 Albert Belle 1996 7.97 48 64 Jeff Bagwell 2000 7.97 47 65 Greg Vaughn 1996 7.95 41 66 Chipper Jones 1999 7.94 45 67 Alex Rodriguez 2005 7.93 48 68 Andres Galarraga 1998 7.93 44 69 Ken Griffey Jr. 1999 7.92 48 70 Shawn Green 2001 7.92 49 71 Jose Canseco 1998 7.89 46 72 Richard Hidalgo 2000 7.89 44 73 Manny Ramirez 1998 7.88 45 74 Juan Gonzalez 1997 7.88 42 75 Rafael Palmeiro 2002 7.88 43 76 Rafael Palmeiro 2001 7.83 47 77 David Justice 2000 7.82 41 78 David Ortiz 2005 7.82 47 79 Jay Buhner 1996 7.80 44 80 Albert Pujols 2004 7.77 46 81 Manny Ramirez 2001 7.75 41 82 Derrek Lee 2005 7.74 46 83 Alex Rodriguez 2003 7.74 47 84 Sammy Sosa 2003 7.74 40 85 Vladimir Guerrero 2000 7.71 44 T86 Frank Thomas 2003 7.69 42 T86 Ken Griffey Jr. 2000 7.69 40 88 Carlos Delgado 1999 7.68 44 89 Jason Giambi 2003 7.66 41 90 Adam Dunn 2007 7.66 40 91 Jeff Bagwell 1997 7.60 43 92 Todd Hundley 1996 7.59 41 93 Frank Thomas 1996 7.59 40 94 Manny Ramirez 2004 7.57 43 95 Richie Sexson 2001 7.53 45 96 Barry Bonds 1997 7.52 40 97 Phil Nevin 2001 7.51 41 98 Andres Galarraga 1996 7.51 47 99 Mike Piazza 1999 7.49 40 100 Jeff Bagwell 1999 7.47 42 T101 Juan Gonzalez 1998 7.43 45 T101 Richie Sexson 2003 7.43 45 T103 Tino Martinez 1997 7.41 44 T103 Jay Buhner 1997 7.41 40 105 Alex Rodriguez 2000 7.40 41 106 Frank Thomas 2000 7.39 43 107 Carlos Delgado 2003 7.37 42 108 Adam Dunn 2005 7.37 40 109 Ken Caminiti 1996 7.33 40 110 Jason Giambi 2002 7.32 41 111 Paul Konerko 2004 7.28 41 112 Albert Pujols 2003 7.28 43 113 Lance Berkman 2002 7.27 42 114 Andruw Jones 2006 7.26 41 115 Todd Helton 2000 7.24 42 116 Shawn Green 2002 7.22 42 117 Carlos Delgado 2000 7.21 41 118 Mike Piazza 1997 7.19 40 119 Vinny Castilla 1998 7.13 46 120 Adam Dunn 2006 7.13 40 121 Alfonso Soriano 2006 7.11 46 122 David Ortiz 2004 7.04 41 123 Troy Glaus 2001 6.97 41 124 Paul Konerko 2005 6.96 40 125 Rafael Palmeiro 1998 6.95 43 126 Albert Pujols 2005 6.94 41 127 Mo Vaughn 1996 6.93 44 128 Dante Bichette 1995 6.91 40 129 Vladimir Guerrero 1999 6.89 42 130 Shawn Green 1999 6.84 42 131 Andres Galarraga 1997 6.83 41 132 Mark Teixeira 2005 6.68 43 133 Tony Batista 2000 6.61 41 134 Mo Vaughn 1998 6.57 40 135 Vinny Castilla 1997 6.54 40 136 Ellis Burks 1996 6.53 40 137 Vinny Castilla 1996 6.36 40 138 Alex Rodriguez 1998 6.12 42
WOW!!!!
ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY EIGHT!!!
That’s an average of 10.6 a season, last season there were only 5, in 2000 there were 16.
10.6 is a far cry from 2.08.
In fact it’s a ridiculous leap, but that’s the nature of the game, it changes it morphs into weird things at times, things like all these homers, or steroid talk.
One things for sure Earl Weaver was right, the game revolves around pitching, and that’s what leads us to the next list.
Seriously, when you think about the game and you’ve been a Reds fan as long as I have you tend to think through the spectrum that shines through the offensive side first. It’s the nature of being a Reds fan, as I’ve stated before the Reds approach to the game has been unique over the past 50 years.
Since 1955 only the Reds and the Red Sox have winning percentages over .500 and below league average ERA’s.
WINNING PERCENTAGE PCT ERA 1 Yankees .562 0.27 2 Dodgers .539 0.39 3 Red Sox .527 -.04 4 Braves .524 0.09 5 Reds .524 -.11 6 Cardinals .522 0.08 7 Orioles .521 0.14 8 Giants .516 0.05 9 White Sox .513 0.12
Now this is a dance with often bad results, and if we are to look at the history of the game we’ll find that not many teams win more then 90 games with an above average ERA, and when I say not many I mean not many at all.
Here’s an example of the top 10 worst pitching teams (BY ERA vs. the League) 100 win clubs.
An example of the difference between the 1975 Reds and 1975 Reds pitching staff is 43.74 runs over 162 games.
ERA YEAR DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE W 1 Yankees 2004 -.05 4.69 4.64 101 2 Reds 1976 0.00 3.51 3.50 102 3 Tigers 1915 0.07 2.86 2.93 100 4 Red Sox 1946 0.12 3.38 3.50 104 5 Giants 1962 0.15 3.79 3.94 103 6 Dodgers 1953 0.19 4.10 4.28 105 7 Braves 2003 0.19 4.10 4.29 101 8 Phillies 1977 0.21 3.71 3.91 101 9 Reds 1975 0.27 3.37 3.63 108 10 Tigers 1968 0.27 2.71 2.98 103
Ok.. so there aren’t many poor 100 win clubs, but lets note that is the Yankee squad that blew the 3-1 playoff lead, maybe it was the pitching?
Next we look at the teams who won 90 or more with league average or less ERA’s.
But before we do that let’s run a quick number search on the total of teams in modern history that have won 90 games…. and we find 461 as the answer, surely many of them have had more the a league average ERA.
Team YEAR W ERA Runs Reds 1976 102 0.00 1 Yankees 2004 101 -.05 2 A's 1914 99 -.04 1 Red Sox 1977 97 -.08 1 Indians 1999 97 -.04 1 Cubs 1984 96 -.16 1 A's 1913 96 -.26 1 Yankees 2005 95 -.17 2 Red Sox 1975 95 -.20 1 Rangers 1999 95 -.20 2 Red Sox 2005 95 -.38 1 Red Sox 1950 94 -.31 1 Cubs 1937 93 -.07 1 Astros 2001 93 -.02 2 Cardinals 1963 93 -.03 1 Giants 1927 92 -.05 1 Red Sox 1967 92 -.13 1 Dodgers 1954 92 -.23 2 Reds 1978 92 -.24 2 Brewers 1987 91 -.15 2 Tigers 1971 91 -.16 2 Giants 2004 91 -.03 2 Reds 1956 91 -.07 1 Indians 2001 91 -.17 2 Yankees 1933 91 -.08 1 Cubs 1912 91 -.03 2 Tigers 1967 91 -.09 2 Giants 1997 90 -.22 4 Cubs 1998 90 -.26 3 Yankees 1906 90 -.09 2 Tigers 1908 90 -.02 1 Mariners 1997 90 -.22 1 White Sox 1977 90 -.18 3 Mets 1984 90 -.04 6 Cardinals 1971 90 -.39 2 White Sox 2006 90 -.05 3
When I say many, I wasn’t thinking 36, or about 7.8% of the teams that have won 90.
Of course when you have an ERA that doesn’t keep up with the league and win ninety games you often have a great offense.
In the case of our 36 teams we find 16 teams having led their league in Runs scored and 14 who were 2nd in the league in Runs. 21 of the 36 are AL teams and the Red Sox lead all teams with 5 appearances on the list (the Reds show up 3 times) 27% of the teams on the list achieved this feat after the strike in 1994. 6 of the teams made it to the World Series, each of those teams were also number one in the league in scoring runs.
So next time you shrug your head at the adage that pitching wins games remember that somewhere in there is a grain of truth, and sometimes you have to trade dynamic outfielders when their market value is high, just so you can make a hedge bet on pitching, because deep down it matters.
Even if you think it’s boring.