Skimming the surface
Despite what Cincinnati Reds manager Jerry Narron or most baseball experts say, Joe Nuxhall predicted Thursday night the Reds’ starting rotation could well include Homer Bailey at the start of the 2007 season. Nuxhall was master of ceremonies at the 28th annual Knights of Columbus Sports Stag, held at the Father Butler Council in Hamilton.
“I’m saying right now, I think he’s going to be in the starting rotation,” Nuxhall said of the 20-year-old Bailey, the Reds’ most promising prospect who was almost untouchable at Class AA Chattanooga last season.
I’m not going to waste time challenging that assertion, running stats or conversions for Bailey. But I will note that his 1.19 whip and 1.59 era in AA look good. I’ll also have to note that the praise comes from Joe Nuxhall a man who toed the mound of Crosley at the age of 15.
That lead me to ponder two things, one what kind of 16 year old gets to play major league ball, and two what does history tell us about 21 year old pitchers and the Reds?
I’ll break up the eras as thus
1876-1899. An era marked by really volatile player and franchise movement, when the game is unstable and weak Bill James said that there is usually a larger amount of younger players and ones that achieve success. It’s no big surprise that all but two of the players who have played major league ball at the ripe age of 16 or younger arrived during three distinct eras:
1. Pre-1900 - An era of multiple unsteady leagues and teams, youngest player is Fred Chapman a 14 year old who pitches for the Philadelphia A’s in 1887, at a distance of 50 feet, before the mound was installed.
2. World War 2 - Shortage of talent
3. Bonus Era - Era of Bonus rule
The two dissenters were Jim Curry and Coonie Bank who each appeared in one game at the age of 16 in 1909.
Also note that the batters are often skill position players (catcher Coonie Blank) and shortstop (Alex George), in fact since the 19th century all the players who appeared in the game at the age of 16 or younger were either a pitcher of a skill position player.
GAMES YEAR G AGE Frank Pearce 1876 1 16 Bill Bishop 1886 2 16 Mike Kilroy 1888 1 15 Fred Chapman 1887 1 14 Willie McGill 1890 24 16 Kid Keenan 1891 1 16 Joe Stanley 1897 1 16 Carl Scheib 1943 6 16 Rogers McKee 1943 4 16 Joe Nuxhall 1944 1 15 Jim Derrington 1956 1 16 YEAR AB AGE Tommy Brown 1944 146 16 Leonidas Lee 1877 18 16 Milt Scott 1882 5 16 Piggy Ward 1883 5 16 Chick Carroll 1884 16 16 Joe Fogarty 1885 8 16 Tom Hess 1892 2 16 Jim Curry 1909 4 16 Coonie Blank 1909 2 16 Putsy Caballero 1944 4 16 Tommy Brown 1944 146 16 Alex George 1955 10 16
Alex George was the last 16 year old to get an at bat in MLB, he was a shortstop called up by the A’s in 1955, their first year in Kansas City, a year that saw them lose 91 games, when you lose 91 games your roster often has some weird appearances her and there. Jim Darrington is the last 16 years old to get an at bat in MLB. He was a bonus baby signing by the White Sox and had to spend the first two years of his career on the ML roster. He was out of the league by the age of 18.
As for the Reds they too have a long history of young pitchers flaming out and some doing well. Let’s look at the Reds 21 and under and see what their history looks like. We’ll keep it simple, innings pitched and RSAA (RSAA–Runs saved against average. It’s the amount of runs that a pitcher saved vs. what an average pitcher would have allowed.)
The Reds prove to have their largest group of pitchers under the age of 21 in the years prior to 1900, almost 70% of them pitched before the current distance of 60′ 6″ was instituted.
1876-1899 INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE 1 Elmer Smith 1887 447.1 79 19 2 Billy Rhines 1890 401.1 78 21 3 Lee Viau 1888 387.2 13 21 4 Elmer Smith 1888 348.1 8 20 5 Noodles Hahn 1899 309 45 20 6 Larry McKeon 1885 290 16 19 7 Elmer Smith 1889 203 -20 21 8 Larry McKeon 1886 156 -31 20 9 Elmer Smith 1886 81.2 -4 18 10 John Weyhing 1888 65.2 13 19 11 Joe Murphy 1886 46 -8 19 12 Jesse Tannehill 1894 29 -6 19 13 Lem Cross 1893 21 -2 21 14 Brownie Foreman 1896 18 -24 20 15 Willie McGill 1892 17 -4 18 16 Mike Shea 1887 16.2 -5 20 17 Jimmy Peoples 1885 15 -14 21 T18 Dan Bickham 1886 9 0 21 T18 WildBill Widner 1887 9 0 20 T18 Percy Coleman 1898 9 1 21 21 Fred Blank 1894 8 1 20 22 Carney Flynn 1894 7.2 -10 19 23 Wiley Davis 1896 4.1 -2 20 24 Kid Baldwin 1885 4 -3 20 T25 Jeremiah Reardon 1886 2 -3 17 T25 Ted Conover 1889 2 -2 21
The next group is from 1900-1941, a pure pitching era in Cincinnati (aside from some brief years in the early 1900’s)
This group is mostly highlighted with a couple of Pete’s (Donahue and Schnieder) and Sea Lion Hall, one of the earlier relief type of pitcher. Born Carlos Clolo, “Charley” Hall was a thick-lipped man who resembled a sea lion I suppose.
You be the judge
1900-1941 INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE 1 Pete Schneider 1917 342 22 21 2 Noodles Hahn 1900 311.1 3 21 3 Pete Schneider 1915 276 11 19 4 Pete Schneider 1916 274 -3 20 5 Pete Donohue 1922 242 20 21 6 Henry Thielman 1902 211 -4 21 7 Gene Schott 1935 159 -3 21 8 Roy Hitt 1907 153 -18 20 9 Pete Schneider 1914 144 2 18 10 Pete Donohue 1921 118 5 20 11 Sea Lion Hall 1906 95 -2 20 12 Jean Dubuc 1908 85 -3 19 13 Jean Dubuc 1909 71 -9 20 14 Sea Lion Hall 1907 68 -1 21 15 Jack Rowan 1908 49.1 3 21 16 Rip Vowinkel 1905 45 -5 20 17 Charlie Case 1901 27 -4 21 18 Dixie Davis 1912 26.2 1 21 19 Tom Cantwell 1909 22 2 20 20 Dick Scott 1901 21 -4 18 21 Chick Smith 1913 17.2 0 20 22 Ed Gerner 1919 17 0 21 23 Marty O'Toole 1908 15 0 19 24 Crese Heismann 1901 13.2 -4 21 25 Si Johnson 1928 10 -1 21 T26 Buck Hooker 1902 8 -1 21 T26 Pat Ragan 1909 8 -1 20 28 Chet Carmichael 1909 7 2 21 29 Bert Sincock 1908 4.2 -1 20 30 Bill Cramer 1912 2.1 1 21 31 Bill Doak 1912 2 0 21 T32 Tom Cantwell 1910 1 -2 21 T32 Pat Griffin 1914 1 -1 21 T32 Herman Pillette 1917 1 -2 21 T32 Eddie Tiemeyer 1906 1 0 21 T32 Rufe Meadows 1926 1 0 18
Note the RSAA for this group, is nothing to really write home about aside from the Pete’s over 20 showings.
The next group is a small sampling of the war years. From this group we get some youngsters, amongst them we see Joe Nuxhall’s famous appearance. But very few men over the age of 19
1942-1946 INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE 1 Herm Wehmeier 1945 5 -5 18 2 Ewell Blackwell 1942 3 -1 19 T3 Joe Nuxhall 1944 1 -5 15 T3 Kent Peterson 1944 1 0 18 T3 Jake Eisenhart 1944 1 0 21
The next group is what I like to view as the Bonus Era, this era is when scouting was king and the goal was to bring home the best players, both the cheap and the rich. Baseball worried about the rich stocking up their farm systems with too many prospects, therefore they instituted a rule that the player would have to be carried on the major league roster for two tears. This is what Koufax did, as well as Harmon Killebrew. It worked for them others like Jim Darrington flamed out quick in the face of all that talent.
1947-1960 INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE 1 Kent Peterson 1947 152 -9 21 2 Herm Wehmeier 1948 147 -28 21 3 Jim Maloney 1960 64 -6 20 4 Claude Osteen 1960 48 -7 20 5 Jay Hook 1957 10 0 20 6 Claude Osteen 1959 8 -2 19 7 Jim O'Toole 1958 7 2 21 8 Dave Skaugstad 1957 6 2 17 9 Claude Osteen 1957 4 1 17 10 Jay Hook 1958 3 -3 21 11 Herm Wehmeier 1947 1 0 20
Maloney and O’Toole were two of the larger Reds signings in the late 50’s. Osteen a local Cincinnati boy (Reading) was too nervous in Cincinnati and eventually was traded to Washington, who later used him to get the Adam Dunn of the 1960’s, Frank Howard. Osteen and Dave Skaugstad appeared at the age of 17 for the Reds in 1957, Skaugstad would never make it back.
Once again the appearance of 21 and younger doesn’t produce a star at that stage, nor any RSAA numbers that really help the team.
The next group will comprise the second deadball era, the 60’s and the 70’s were low scoring eras and with that usually comes young pitching.
1961-1980 INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE 1 Gary Nolan 1967 227 27 19 2 Don Gullett 1971 218 16 20 3 Wayne Simpson 1970 176 23 21 4 Ross Grimsley 1971 161.1 -5 21 5 Gary Nolan 1968 150 18 20 6 Don Gullett 1972 135 -12 21 7 Gary Nolan 1969 109 0 21 T8 Billy McCool 1965 105 -7 20 T8 Billy McCool 1966 105 20 21 10 Frank Pastore 1979 95.1 -7 21 11 Jim Maloney 1961 95 -2 21 12 Billy McCool 1964 89 12 19 T13 Don Gullett 1970 78 15 19 T13 Tom Carroll 1974 78 -1 21 15 Mario Soto 1977 60.2 -10 20 16 Manny Sarmiento 1976 43.2 7 20 17 Milt Wilcox 1971 43.1 0 21 18 Manny Sarmiento 1977 40.1 7 21 19 Sammy Ellis 1962 28 -9 21 20 Milt Wilcox 1970 22.1 4 20 21 Mario Soto 1978 18 2 21 22 Claude Osteen 1961 0.1 0 21
If any group of young pitchers the Reds ever had stands out it’s this group, a perfect mix of the Bobby Mattick signings and the draft work of both Jim McGlothian and later Bob Howsam. The above list tells me one thing for sure. Gary Nolan was a stud, if Homer could throw a season like Nolan’s 1967 (or even Wayne Simpson’s 1970) then the Reds could exceed expectations pitching wise again this season.
Of course the above list also is a laundry list of broken wings and broken dreams, the game eats young pitching and sometimes it doesn’t spit it back up.
Once Howsam left and the game slowly morphed into the style we see today the young 21 year old pitcher stopped showing up in Cincinnati and from 1981-2006 we’ve probably seen them less then any other time in the teams history.
1981-2006 INNINGS PITCHED YEAR IP RSAA AGE 1 Scott Scudder 1989 100.1 -9 21 2 John Roper 1993 80 -14 21 3 Jeff Russell 1983 68.1 6 21 4 Ryan Wagner 2004 51.2 -4 21 5 Dennys Reyes 1998 38.2 -1 21 6 Johnny Ruffin 1993 37.2 2 21 7 Ryan Wagner 2003 21.2 6 20 8 Curt Lyons 1996 16 0 21 9 Rosario Rodriguez 1990 10.1 -3 20 10 Rosario Rodriguez 1989 4.1 0 19 11 Candy Sierra 1988 4 0 21
Again the above is a collection of relievers and failed starters, with Jeff Russell representing the cream of the crop.
Regardless of the talent Homer has and regardless of the need for him to carry the Reds (someday), he’s likely going to have a very tough road ahead in the major leagues, it’s not an easy place to play and it’s not any easier for younger guys as the record shows. They tend to get overwhelmed and well, who can blame them.
Remember in this game there have been more Dave Skaugstad’s then Gary Nolan’s.